锘?!DOCTYPE html> 5G Is Expected to Complete Popularization in China in The Following Five Years
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  • 5G Is Expected to Complete Popularization in China in The Following Five Years

    Source:iResearc March 05,20195:50 PM
    2009 is the year when 3G started in China. It took five years for 3G to get popularized and its penetration rate was 35.5% at its peak. Five years later, China embraced 4G in 2014 and the spread of 3G was interrupted due to the technology upshifting. Thanks to the user foundation laid by 3G, 4G in China started with an initial penetration rate as high as 7.1% at the beginning of 2014. Until 2017, the penetration rate of 4G has reached 71.7% and it is expected to exceed 85% in 2018. Thus, 5G is forecasted to complete its general user acquisition in 5 years and the peak of its penetration rate is assumed to be higher than 90% without new technology interruption.
    What鈥檚 more, not only smart phones but also normal home appliances can attract users to 5G network in 5G era. Thus, many users who don鈥檛 use smart phones in 4G era will join 5G user group before the arrival of the full-Internet era, so the penetration rate of 5G should be higher than that of 4G in theory. However, the demographic dividend will exhaust 5 years after 5G enters the Chinese market, and it is believed that the 5G user number will change along with the rise or drop of Chinese population after 2027.

    5G industry and 5G economy are two easily confused terms. Here 5G industry refers to the basic telecom infrastructure industry related to 5G technology which is not expected to experience a surge in revenue or huge fluctuations like Internet industry due to its construction and business adjustments in the physical world.聽
    With the improvement of infrastructure construction, 5G economy, however, as one new form of economy backed by 5G communications, is very likely to embrace the prosperity. Thus, iResearch forecasts that the revenue of China鈥檚 5G industry will attain 0.6 trillion Yuan in 2020 and maintain a growth rate of about 10% in the following four years given the user number growth and basic infrastructure demand increase until the next revolutionary communication technology comes.

    In the revenue of China鈥檚 5G industry, input in infrastructure construction is expected to take the largest share in the first two years, but it will gradually decrease in the following years. Meanwhile, revenue from mobile traffic fee and 5G smart phones will present significant increase in the third year after the infrastructure construction is completed. Internet information service fee which comes from traffic-based services offered by related 5G companies are and will be the major source of revenue in 5G industry when 5G industry begins and develops.
    Due to the ultra-dense network and equipment compatibility, brand new 5G base stations need to be built. The number and price of base stations are 30% higher than that in 4G era.Smart phones might be free in the future thanks to the revolution of business modes.5G mobile traffic fee is the natural continuation of 4G mobile traffic fees. Although 5G users are faced with larger mobile traffic demand, the expense of mobile traffic will not rise significantly, since the price of mobile traffic per unit will decrease in general.聽
    Different from 4G era, Internet business modes are not expected to have huge changes in the initial stage of 5G era. Thus, consumption modes suitable for the old era can be directly applied in the new era. As a result, massive market education is not a must for 5G era, which contributed most to the growth of 5G industry compared with other factors.

    聽More details can be seen in2019 China's Internet Industry Report

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